American Politics Fated To Remain On ‘the Knifes Edge As Voters Align Between Candidates In Durable Patterns


American Politics Fated To Remain On ‘the Knifes Edge As Voters Align Between Candidates In Durable Patterns

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American Politics Fated To Remain On ‘the Knifes Edge As Voters Align Between Candidates In Durable Patterns


In key races across the country, voters continue to be divided along demographic and age lines, which has kept the two parties at close parity for years, limiting each side's ability to generate windfalls or gains from the election. overnight in November.

A wide range of public opinion polls show that in key races, voters line up Republican and Democratic candidates in a very similar pattern, with a few exceptions. Nearly every major competitive election in the state is characterized by a huge gender gap, which may be even larger than in the last election. Voters almost everywhere also differ sharply along educational and generational lines. And while recent experience may have narrowed the gap in party preference between white and nonwhite voters, racial disparities in party support also remain stark.

"These categories are everywhere," said Democratic strategist Celinda Lake, who was the top pollster for President Joe Biden's 2020 campaign.

Since many competitive races are closely related to each other, even small changes in the relationship between these different groups can still tie the majority of races together and give them a clean win. As a party that leaves the White House in times of economic unrest, history shows that the GOP clearly has a better chance to capitalize when these late moves occur among voters. But it looks like these deep-seated divisions will lead to an outcome that will once again leave the eventual winner with narrow majorities in the House and Senate.

A close result could show how difficult it will be for both sides to break out of the current impasse. With the worst pandemic in a century and widespread dissatisfaction with Donald Trump's actions and priorities as president, Democrats expected a landslide defeat in the 2020 election. But then they unexpectedly lost House seats and failed to win the few. Senate seats they thought would be available even if Biden won the White House. Now, even with the worst inflation in 40 years, Republicans may turn to delusional early-spring expectations of a big red wave in elections for Congress and governors, even if Republicans remain committed to handing over control of the House. of Representatives.

Unless the demographic, generational and geographic identity of voters, as demonstrated again this year, is not affected by once-in-a-lifetime epidemics or inflation or major events like the Supreme Court. However, the decision to abolish the 50-year-old constitutional right to abortion is not clear what could threaten them. The true sign of this year's election may be what UCLA political scientist Lynn Vorek calls "a knife edge" between their increasingly disparate and even hostile political alliances over the years.

For example, Glenn Bolger, a seasoned Republican pollster, stated bluntly, "I'd be surprised if the Senate voted 52-48."

In fact, many bipartisan analysts believe the likely outcome next month could be a 50-50 split in the Senate between parties, something not seen in two consecutive elections since direct senatorial elections began shortly before the First World War. . Even if Republicans lead the House, it now appears that their majority will be smaller and more fragmented than it appeared earlier this year; If the Democrats lose the opportunity to defend their already slim majority, their advantage will undoubtedly shrink historically.

The demographic difference between the two alliances this year starts with gender. The "gender gap," the tendency for women to vote relatively more Democratic or, conversely, the tendency for men to vote relatively more Republican, has been widely discussed in American politics since 1984, but this year could become especially significant.

Key data sources that study how Americans vote, including CNN, the Pew Research Center Verified Voter Poll, and Edison Research exit polls conducted for Catalyst, a media consortium with Democratic campaign forecasts, widely agree that Democrats are mostly women and the 2018. House of Representatives. The loss of most men in the 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns and elections. (In 2018, Pew divided men equally into two groups.) Overall, these sources found that Democrats did about 13 percentage points more in 2016 for women than for men. (when Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton was the first major party female presidential candidate) and 8-12 points better in 2018 and 2020.

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If the trends currently seen in the polls continue through Election Day, the gender gap is likely to close at the top of that scale this year. The latest CNN national poll conducted by SSRS shows that Democrats receive 60% of the bipartisan female vote and only 43% of the bipartisan male vote on the "regular" congressional ballot. Other recent CBS and Fox News general polls show a narrower gender gap, though Democrats are also winning among women and losing among men.

AARP, the giant lobby for seniors, has hired organizations spearheaded by Trump (Fabrizio Ward) and Biden to conduct surveys of the top 2020 pollsters (Impact Research), key senators and governors. center. by the same method. In the top seven competitive Senate races surveyed by the two organizations, Republicans outnumbered men in every state and Democrats outnumbered women in every state except Wisconsin. (In Florida, Democratic leadership among women was also very limited.)

Recent polls by the nonpartisan Marist Institute for Public Opinion at Marist College also show that Democrats lead by at least 11 points, and often more, among women in senatorial races in Colorado, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Georgia. Republicans have led every race except Arizona (where Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly is a former astronaut) and Pennsylvania (where Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman acts as a tough activist). Polls in Arizona and Nevada show Kelly and Sen. Katherine Cortez Masto leading by double digits among women, respectively, but trailing among men, with Kelly leading by a narrow margin and Masto leading by twenty points. In a CNN poll, the two genders were sharply divided in the gubernatorial races in Arizona and Nevada.

Strong forces share the choice of men and women this year. Most polls show that the decision by a Republican-appointed Supreme Court majority to strike down a nearly 50-year-old constitutional right matters more to women than men. In most polls, like the recent NPR/Marist National Poll, inflation is more important to men than any other topic.

The persistence and severity of the gender gap led Lake to formulate a simple rule: Democrats win if they can create an advantage among women (who vote in most states) at least as large as the GOP's advantage. Between the men.

Another theme of this survey is the generation gap. With rare exceptions, Democrats fare better with younger voters than older voters. This advantage is strongest among younger voters ages 18 to 29, but now often extends to voters under 40, the oldest millennials. Democrats remained consistently weak among voters late in their careers, ages 45 to 65, before rebounding in several states and showing more competitive numbers among those over 65 who are receptive to Democratic appeals. Costs according to AARP research.

Education looks like the most important neckline possible this year. “If you combine nine different battleground state surveys, the difference in education is about 3 times the difference in age and 10 points more than the difference between men and women, so I'm sure it will make a difference. this race," he said. Matt Hogan is a partner at Impact Research, the Democratic arm of the bipartisan polling group AARP.

Broken down by race, recent major data sources on voter behavior generally suggest that Democrats are recruiting about 60% of all voters with at least four years of college education in 2020 and 2018, down slightly from 2016. In CNN's latest national poll, Democrats tied the game again with the support of nearly three-fifths of college graduates in a two-way "general" poll, though some other general polls showed a smaller lead. According to AARP and CNN polling, Democrats are on track to reach that threshold in senatorial races in states like New Hampshire, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Colorado, as well as in gubernatorial races in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. : CNN poll shows Masto (Nevada slightly behind for college graduates).

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Republicans were strongest among voters without a college education. On a racial basis, the GOP won a majority of voters by a narrow margin in both 2018 and 2020, and by a wide margin in 2016. Its advantage is, of course, especially pronounced among non-college-educated white voters who they have moved from the core of the Democratic coalition to the core of the Republican electorate since the 1960s. Biden won only about a third of the white working class in 2020, slightly more than the historically anemic Hillary Clinton in 2016 but slightly less than the match in 2018.

CNN's latest congressional preference poll shows Democrats are once again stuck at one-third support for non-college whites this year. State polls show that some independent Senate candidates are doing slightly better, including Pennsylvania's Fetterman and Rep. Tim Ryan in the Ohio Senate race. But in these polls, the GOP candidate typically wins more than 60 percent or more of these white workers.

The same differences in priorities that perpetuate the gender gap also contribute to the education gap. For working-class voters, who often operate on tight economic margins, inflation is a pervasive and brutal daily problem; This is usually more inconvenient for college-educated, white-collar voters. This allowed relatively more college-educated adults to vote for democracy in favor of abortion rights and the preservation of democracy. As I wrote, the main tension that could decide next month's election is how many voters prioritize economic issues and how many emphasize abortion rights and democracy, a balance that may vary from state to state. Tony Fabrizio, one of Trump's top pollsters in 2020 and the Republican wing of the AARP group, said that while abortion helped Democrats motivate voters and define their Republican opponents, in the final weeks of the campaign, "I think we're seeing a movement." Get away from him and go into the economy. "Comeback that benefits Republicans."

These effects reinforce each other. For years, non-college-educated white men have been the strongest demographic in the GOP, with Republicans making up nearly two-thirds (or more) of them in 2018 and 2020, and a CNN poll suggests this group may equal or even slightly exceed this number. On this year's congressional ballot, according to detailed results provided by the CNN polling team. According to a recent poll by the Marist Senate and CNN, Democratic candidates rarely get even 35% of the vote along with these people.

বিপরীতভাবে, কলেজ-শিক্ষিত মহিলারা প্রধান গণতান্ত্রিক গোষ্ঠী হিসাবে আবির্ভূত হয়েছে বেশিরভাগ উত্স দেখায় যে 2018 এবং 2020 সালে ডেমোক্র্যাটরা মধ্যে প্রায় প্রায় জিতেছে এবং একটি একটি একটি একটি CNN জরিপ যে এই এই এই ভোটে দলটি সেই সেই স্তরের স্তরের স্তরের স্তরের ।।।।।। ।।।।।। ।।।।।। ।।।।।। ।।।।।। রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে এবং সিএনএন-এর যে জর্জিয়া ছাড়া প্রতিটি সিনেট ডেমোক্র্যাটিক প্রার্থীরা এই স্তরে বা তার রয়েছেন রয়েছেন রয়েছেন স্ট্রাইপের ডানপন্থী শ্বেতাঙ্গ বিশাল সংখ্যক সংখ্যক)

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দুটি গোষ্ঠীর তীক্ষ্ণ মেরুত্ব একটি রিপাবলিকান বলগারকে একটি মানদণ্ড করতে করেছিল করেছিল যা থিমের একটি ভিন্নতা ভিন্নতা ভিন্নতা ভিন্নতা করেন রিপাবলিকানদের যে যে জাতিতে রয়েছে যেখানে তাদের ডিগ্রি ছাড়াই মধ্যে একটি একটি সুবিধা এবং ভোটার রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে রয়েছে. .

জেনারেশন লিঙ্গকেও প্রভাবিত করে। গর্ভপাতের বাতিল করার জন্য কোর্টের সিদ্ধান্ত তরুণ মহিলাদের সমর্থনকে শক্তিশালী করেছে করেছে এমন দল যা ইতিমধ্যে দিকে ।।।।।।।। ।।।।।।।।

"যুবতী আদালতের সিদ্ধান্তে খুব আগ্রহী আগ্রহী ভীত ক্ষুব্ধ ক্ষুব্ধ ক্ষুব্ধ ক্ষুব্ধ ক্ষুব্ধ গণতান্ত্রিক নন-ভোটিং গ্রুপ," বলেছেন ক্যাথরিন স্পিলার নারীবাদী নির্বাহী পরিচালক একটি উদার গোষ্ঠী যা লিঙ্গ নিয়ে নিয়ে একটি একটি একটি গবেষণা ।।। ।।। ।।। ।।। ।।। করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে Electric Electric করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে করেছে.

ফাউন্ডেশনের গবেষণার জরিপ পরিচালনাকারী লেক বলেছেন বলেছেন বয়স্ক মহিলাদের সমীকরণটি আরও জটিল জটিল বিশেষ করে মধ্যে একটি বড় সংখ্যক কলেজ ।।।।। ।।।।। ।।।।। ।।।।। ।।।।। ।।।।। তারা গর্ভপাতের সমর্থন করার প্রবণতাও রাখে, সে বলে, কিন্তু কলেজ- শিক্ষিত তরুণীদের ভোটে মুদ্রাস্ফীতির উপর অধিকারের পক্ষে পক্ষে কম ।।।।।। ।।।।।। "আপনি অ-কলেজ পাবেন যদি না আপনি তাদের একটি কথোপকথন এবং রো বনাম কথোপকথন করেন করেন করেন করে তাদের সাথে সাথে সাথে সাথে সাথে লেক বলেন বলেন বলেন বলেন বলেন বলেন বলেন বলেন বলেন বলেন বলেন বলেন বলেন বলেন বলেন বলেন বলেন বলেন বলেন বলেন বলেন বলেন বলেন বলেন বলেন

লেক করে যে কোন বয়সের নারী যাদের কলেজে তারা এই নির্বাচনে মূল ভোটার পারে বোলগারও এই মতামতের দিকে ।।।। একটি সিএনএন জরিপে, ডেমোক্র্যাটরা কংগ্রেসে এক এক-জিতেছে, যা 2020 সালে পার্টির চেয়ে এবং এবং 2018 সালে তার শক্তির ।।।।।।।। ।।।।।।।। ।।।।।।।।

লিঙ্গ এবং বর্ণের সাথে উল্লেখযোগ্যভ ा বথ र হিস্পানিক, বিশেষ করে যাদের ডিগ্রি নেই, তারা রিপাবলিকানকে ভোট জন্য একটি সক্রিয় গোষ্ঠীতে পরিণত হয়েছে হয়েছে হয়েছে হয়েছে হয়েছে হয়েছে; কিছুটা হলেও কালো। 2018 সালে বর্ণের ভোটারদের গণতান্ত্রিক সমর্থন মাত্র তিন থেকে থেকে 2020- তিন তিন-চতুর্থাংশের ।।।। ।।।। ।।।। রিপাবলিকানরা করে পুরুষ সংখ্যালঘু এবং ভোটারদের মধ্যে সেই করতে পারে কিনা তা এই মূল পরিবর্তন হতে ।।।।।।। ফ্যাব্রিজিও ভবিষ্যদ্বাণী যে এটি সেভাবেই থাকবে, প্রধানত হতাশাজনক। হোগান, একজন ডেমোক্র্যাটিক পোলস্টার, আশঙ্কা করছেন তিনি ।। ।। GOP এর 2020 লাভের "আমরা একটি দেখছি দেখছি", তিনি বলেন, "হিস্পানিক এবং ভোটার উভয়ের মধ্যে মধ্যে প্রাথমিকভাবে প্রাথমিকভাবে অর্থনীতির ।।।।।।।।।।।।।।।।।।। ।।।।। ।।।।। ।।।।।।।।।।।।।। ।।।।।।।।।।।।।।।।।।। ।।।।।।।।।।।।।।।।। ।। ।।।।।।।।।।।।।।।।।।। ।।।।।।।।।।।।।।।।।।। ।।।।।।।।।। ।।।।।।।।। ।।।।।।।।।।।।।।।।।।। ।।।।।।।।।।।।।।।

. কিন্তু দ্য পোস্ট/ইপসোস এবং পিউ সেন্টারের প্রধান হিস্পানিক পোলগুলি এখনও পর্যন্ত রিপাবলিকান লাভের কোনও প্রমাণ পায়নি: প্রতিটি দেখা গেছে ডেমোক্র্যাটরা আগেরটির তুলনায় হিস্পানিক দ্বিদলীয় ভোটের তিন-পঞ্চমাংশেরও বেশি বেশি ভোট পেয়েছে পেয়েছে ৷ ৷ ৷ ৷ ৷ ৷ ৷ ৷ ৷ ৷ আর্ট।, কিন্তু 2020-এর মতো প্রায় একই স্তরে। পোস্ট/ইপসোস সমীক্ষায় পুরুষ বা যারা কলেজে যাননি তাদের মধ্যে উন্নত উন্নত এর কোনো প্রমাণ পাওয়া।। যাইহোক, এমনকি হিস্পানিকদের ছোট পরিবর্তন কঠোর-সংগ্রামী ডেমোক্র্যাটদের হুমকি দিতে পারে। Невада, дзе многія лацінаамерыканцы пацярпелі спачатку ад спынення ігральнай індустрыі, звязанага з COVID, а потым ад інфляцыі, можа быць штатам, дзе эканамічная незадаволенасць выбаршчыкаў найбольш пагражае дэмакратычным перспектывам.

Этая рашотка лаянасці сарадзіа паітычню іістэ, у яой і і і з з з закоў нахаваў т… У гэтым годзе дэмакратам трэба будзе кінуць выклік гісторыі і палітычнаму сур'ёзнасці, каб пазбегнуць значных страт у момант такой шырокай эканамічнай незадаволенасці. Але ўстойлівасць і паўсюднасць гэтых дэмаграфічных падзелаў у гонках па краіне сведчыць аб тым, што незалежна ад таго, які бок у канчатковым рахунку кантралюе Палату прадстаўнікоў і Сенат, сёлетняя жорсткая кампанія не адсуне нас далёка ад гэтага «вастра нажа».

Глядзіце NBC News ЗАРАЗ – 29 кастрычніка

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