BOSTON. Betting on most sporting events is now legal in Massachusetts. But how about betting on one of our state's most popular audiences: politics? Could this be the next frontier for legal gambling?
Technically, it's not yet legal in the US. But you can already bet on politics in Canada and overseas markets, so it's probably only a matter of time before we can do it here. And think about the abundance of material with which we have to work.
General elections are not very competitive in Massachusetts politics these days. Picking a Republican to win is like betting on 16 players in an NCAA basketball tournament. But party primaries are sometimes a competitive field, and betting on them can draw much more attention to them than they really are.
You must work with a New Hampshire elementary school every four years. Despite President Biden's latest attempt to take Granite State off the national lead, New Hampshire law says they must go first, even if that means moving it to next summer. I'm betting the odds are two to one that the media will continue to appear widely; After all, they do it to vote at the Iowa State Fair. But go three-to-one against media involvement if New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu runs and makes the primary meaningless because of his favorite son's status.
Imagine betting on whether the Massachusetts legislature can pass the budget before the June 30 statutory deadline. This hasn't happened in the last eight years in a row, so I set the initial range from 10 to 1.
Here's a fun bet involving Governor Maura Healy, who, as you may know, is now an ex-Ranger. How many times in his speech does Healy compare his job to basketball? I'd bet over/under three at the moment, but he'll probably get tired of it.
What are the chances that this fantasy will become a reality? Over $300 million has been wagered at the UK bookmaker on the Biden-Trump showdown in 2020, so there is clearly a lot of money in the political stakes. And you know what they say about money in American politics. Everyone talks about the conversation and walks.
But the question (if this is not an oxymoron) about the fairness of the political bet needs to be answered. How do you stop politicians from shaving glasses off or rigging elections by being stupid or talking?